Quick Study Austin Market

October 28, 2010 at 7:43 pm 2 comments

grass sky Small I just ran 15 quickie pending / sold analysis around Austin comparing sold the last 60 days and current pending and found some interesting and optimistic data.

If you say that 30 homes sold in area 4 in the past 60 days, that tells us that 15 homes are selling per month recently. Then you see that there are currently 20 area 4 homes pending … that means, in theory, that 20 homes will close in the next 30 days. That would be a slight increase in activity.

When we see the pace pick up like this, it indicates that we are moving inventory through the system, lowering the number of homes on the market. This is a good thing. If the market is saturated, it softens prices; when the market has fewer homes available, it increases demand … basic economics and something we watch closely.

Of the 15 snapshots I ran, 14 were up, 1 was even. Meaning, they all are showing that homes sold for the next 30 days will outpace the rate at which they sold the past 60 days.

5 of them have almost doubled: areas 1B, 1A, downtown condos, 78704 condos and area 5 (east).

The next healthiest: Anderson High School, 78704 homes, area 10N.

A little further down the list but showing stability: areas 4, 2, Hays and Pflugerville over $200k.

This is not an indication of prices creeping up (that is another study), but it indicates stability.

 

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Entry filed under: Austin, Data Central, Smart Real Estate.

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2 Comments Add your own

  • 1. Woody  |  November 4, 2010 at 6:25 am

    With all due respect, I think you’re reaching. There was nothing positive in the stats for September and that includes the number of pendings:

    – Sales in September were down 35% vs Sept’09, the third really bad month in a row, and this is comparing to an already a poor year.
    – Pendings were also down over 20% which means sales for the rest of the year are looking weak.
    – The rate of failed listings hit 59% which is a terrible indicator because all those homes are going to come back to market next year.
    – Despite a 30% increase in withdrawn listings, inventory was up 44%. That is awful.
    – Homes are taking longer to sell.

    The stats for July and August looked the same, way down from last year.

    I would guess the reason you are seeing more sales/pendings in the higher end areas is because jumbo mortgages have gradually dropped from 8% to 4.75% in the past year as the government started subsidizing those too. The high end was on life support until that happened, so there was inevitably some pent up demand.

    Reply
    • 2. nelsonproject  |  November 4, 2010 at 11:57 am

      I think this is good feedback and I agree with most of it. Not trying to reach but there is more activity over the past 6 weeks or so … our phones had been ringing, our showings were up and this was the same feedback / experience I was hearing from Realtors all over town. Because of that perceived uptick in activity, I did these cursory assessments to see if there is actual increased pending activity around town … and there is. Totally agree that luxury has been on life support and was very pleased (as were many) to see those rates come down to join the other rates. I am still very cautious for the next 6 -18 months. We have access to so much of the negative national real estate press that I like to toss in a little silver lining now and then. Thanks for reading.

      Reply

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