Posts filed under ‘Data Central’

Austin, TX Economic Outlook: No Longer a Secret

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Austin as we know it today

Last month I had the honor of listening to David Tandy, CEO of Gracy Title, talk about the Austin economy, the Austin real estate market outlook and where we’re going. Hold on … the Austin we know today will not be the Austin of 2023. Some of the numbers I will reference in this post include articles, posts & research from the Austin Business Journal, 2013-2014 Angelos Angelou Economic Forecast, and the Austin Chamber.

F1

My biggest takeaway was that the Austin growth, momentum, economic outlook numbers are quite possibly understated. The main premise here is that most of the economic forecast, growth projection numbers were researched and posted PRIOR to the F1 Circuit of Americas airing in November (which had an estimated $483M economic impact to Austin) where 600 million people worldwide heard about Austin, TX and what an amazing city we are. Austin is no longer a secret.

The Numbers

  • At a 2.9% growth rate, we are the fastest growing city in the US.
  • In 2013, there will be 60-70,000 people moving to Austin. This growth will continue.
  • For every 2.5 people, we need one housing unit (home or apartment) which equals a 28,000 demand this year. This demand will continue.
  • In 2012, we created about 12,000 housing units, demand was 28,000; we currently have a 30,000 housing deficit. This deficit will continue.
  • low supply, high demand = sellers’ market

California

Californians are moving to Texas, a lot of them. Recent headlines involve Governor Perry’s poaching tour of CA (real classy move, Gov). California’s tall state income tax, increasing sales taxes and suffering schools are fueling the 3rd coast migration. Besides #sxsw, watch for more CA license plates in TX.

Real estate tips for our new residents

First, welcome (ignore the don’t-move-here t-shirts). Second, we are still much cheaper than CA. And a few other things you should know:

  • no income tax in TX, we make up for it in property taxes (they will be much higher than you experienced in CA)
  • prices are going up
  • Multiple offers are commonplace right now and expected to continue
  • Find out about homes before they hit the market (we call this the silent market or pocket listings or, simply, coming soon). How to do this? A good Realtor has a solid network of Realtors and they exchange information all the time. You may want to consider aligning yourself with an office that has the largest market share in the area. (Shameless plug: Keller Williams Realty began in Austin, TX in 1983 … they dominate the Austin market, most listings, most sold, most luxury market, most agents.)

Summary

The growth in Austin over the next 3-10 years is going to be huge, dare I say explosive. Jobs are fine … best job growth in the country. We will continue to feel it with housing supply, multiple offers, increasing prices, affordability and traffic.

Buyers have to be very strategic and on-the-ball with making an offer. The demand & low supply is pushing prices up. There is a ton of CASH out there right now. Gracy Title says 30% of their closings right now are all cash. This translates to disadvantage for contingent and low down-payment offers.

Connect with your favorite savvy and qualified Realtor to customize your real estate strategy and successfully navigate Austin as we know it today.

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty, 2013-2015. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content. Julie Nelson is a licensed Realtor with Keller Williams Realty in Austin, TX.  This article and other blog postings should not be construed as legal or professional advice.  Contact your favorite Austin real estate professionals in person for actual advice.  Julie can be reached at www.thenelsonproject.com.  Searching for homes?  We think this is the coolest Austin home search tool available.

March 12, 2013 at 3:41 pm 5 comments

Market Review & Housing Affordability

Wanted to give you some links that provide good information on the Austin real estate market, 2010 summary and what we’re seeing right now early into 2011.  These are some of the main data resources we use in tracking the market.

One thing that we watch with interest is what we call the Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the HAI is the ability of the average family to afford the average home with only 20% down. It measures whether a typical family could qualify for a typical mortgage on a typical house. The index is up, meaning affordability is up mainly because of 2 of these 3 factors … pretty sure the typical family income is not up so it’s the seriously low mortgage rates and the downward effect of home prices creating the increased HAI. From 1990 – 2008, the index was around 115-140; it’s over 180 right now. When interest rates go up, the index will creep back down.

One of the best sources for Texas and Austin real estate stats is the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. Here is a link to the Austin data page: http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/hs/hs140.asp.

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The Austin Board of Realtors has an excellent report out, Implications & Expectations for Austin’s Market, that outlines the overall 2010 market results.

One of the main things we’re seeing in Austin is price softening but volume of sales creeping up. These are averages for Austin and your local neighborhood market may have different trends with many neighborhoods holding steady. Buyers will pick up this spring but so will the number of homes on the market.

Again, we’re always saying real estate is local and we are happy to run stats & strategy specific to your neighborhood.

 

The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty in Austin strives to provide valuable real estate information and news through this blog and our other online resources.  Find more about The Nelson Project and search for Austin homes at www.TheNelsonProject.com.  If you like this blog, you may want to visit our totally useful Austin neighborhood portal.  We think you may also like www.tacomap.info (tacos first, real estate second).  If you really like what you see, tell your friends to call us with their Austin real estate needs.
 
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty, 2009-2011. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

February 12, 2011 at 5:15 pm Leave a comment

Quick Study Austin Market

grass sky Small I just ran 15 quickie pending / sold analysis around Austin comparing sold the last 60 days and current pending and found some interesting and optimistic data.

If you say that 30 homes sold in area 4 in the past 60 days, that tells us that 15 homes are selling per month recently. Then you see that there are currently 20 area 4 homes pending … that means, in theory, that 20 homes will close in the next 30 days. That would be a slight increase in activity.

When we see the pace pick up like this, it indicates that we are moving inventory through the system, lowering the number of homes on the market. This is a good thing. If the market is saturated, it softens prices; when the market has fewer homes available, it increases demand … basic economics and something we watch closely.

Of the 15 snapshots I ran, 14 were up, 1 was even. Meaning, they all are showing that homes sold for the next 30 days will outpace the rate at which they sold the past 60 days.

5 of them have almost doubled: areas 1B, 1A, downtown condos, 78704 condos and area 5 (east).

The next healthiest: Anderson High School, 78704 homes, area 10N.

A little further down the list but showing stability: areas 4, 2, Hays and Pflugerville over $200k.

This is not an indication of prices creeping up (that is another study), but it indicates stability.

 

October 28, 2010 at 7:43 pm 2 comments

Crestview Allandale Violet Crown: What’s up with that market?

Today’s neighborhood analysis is Crestview in north central Austin. I constantly study Crestview and today’s focus is because I am working with owners about to put their home on the market. So what’s going on in that popular neighborhood?

First, Crestview, as the public perceives it, roughly runs from Burnet to Lamar and Anderson to Koenig and involves 8 or so actual subdivisions, most of which you have most likely not heard of including Vallejo, Violet Crown, Burnet Heights, Northridge Terrace, Bellair Heights. When analyzing the Crestview area, I generally will dip south of 2222 into a slice of Allandale as well as near McCallum Highschool in the Sunshine & Roosevelt streets as a buyer looking in Crestview will most likely also be looking in those neighboring neighborhoods.

It is a very popular north central location due to it’s proximity to downtown and UT without the DT / UT / Hyde Park / Rosedale prices. It has become a trendy destination for young professionals and contemporary remodels. It is gentrification meets octogenarian original owners meets the I-am-not-moving-to-the-suburbs crowd. Built in the late 40’s to the early 60’s, Crestview is grandma meets mid-century modern meets organic gardener. You should see some of the vintage bathroom tile. 

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So, the market. Crestview really went up in value in the 2000’s and has flattened out the last few years. We are waiting to see if 2010 will dip in average price but right now it’s holding. However, right now there is a higher inventory than we have seen in the neighborhood for a long time and that will, most likely, increase time on market and bring prices down a bit. In the chart below, you’ll see that the median sold price increased 9% from 2006 to present.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Diff
# Sold 231 170 114 144 64  
Avg Sold $234,830 $269,193 $270,396 $265,115 $267,467 14%
Med Sold $227,250 $262,150 $259,000 $256,162 $248,450 9%
Avg $ SQFT $189 $213 $218 $204 $198 5%
Med $ SQFT $190 $213 $220 $210 $203 7%
Med Days on Mkt 17 15 29 42 28 65%

This chart is all sold data but the active / for-sale data is very important as we assess the market. For example, right now there are 25 homes on the market in the area in the $200k – $250k price range and only two pending. 18 sold in the last 90 days but we are still seeing the first-time tax credit buyers move through the system. July and August should be very telling but that is another article.

The good news: interest rates (omg) and buyers should be paying attention cause it’s a virtual candy store out there. The not so good news, for sellers, is that inventory needs to go down before prices will come up. The best news: we live in Austin, TX and people are moving here and will continue to move here. I am personally cheering for the game developers and Google and Facebook as they grow their businesses in our fine city … I think they’ll fit in quite nicely in Crestview.

The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty in Austin strives to bring you valuable real estate information and news through this blog and our other online resources.  Find more about The Nelson Project and search for Austin homes at www.TheNelsonProject.com.  if you like this blog, you may want to visit our totally useful Austin neighborhood portal.  If you really like what you see, tell your friends to call us with all their Austin real estate needs.

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

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June 24, 2010 at 5:59 pm 1 comment

2009 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit

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The above chart includes the major modifications to the home-buyer tax credit effective 2009. There are more details and requirements for the credit that are not listed but can be found at http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=187935,00.html or

http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

August 6, 2009 at 7:12 pm 2 comments

This Month In Real Estate (US): February 2009

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

March 3, 2009 at 7:11 pm Leave a comment

Facts, Figures, Rankings, and Statistics about Austin, TX:Survive and Thrive

360 bridge14 Austin companies made “Tech Fast 50” list, Deloitte & Touche LLP (October, 2008 )

 

The list, which the consulting firm compiles each year, ranks companies based on 5-year revenue growth. Austin, with a population of 1.6 million, has a higher concentration of these companies than any other metropolitan area in Texas.

 

12 Austin companies made the list “Inc. 500” list, Inc. magazine (August, 2008 )

The compilation features the country’s fastest-growing privately held companies, which was based on revenue growth from 2004 to 2007.

 

Austin’s “Tech Fast 50” list:

  • Zebra Imaging – 8,515%
  • Anue Systems – 2,261%
  • Zilliant Inc. – 1,497%
  • Surgient Inc. – 1,138%
  • Convio Inc. – 707%
  • NetQos – 671%
  • Perficient Inc. – 623%
  • Valence Technology Inc. – 552%
  • Medical Present Value Inc. – 440%
  • SolarWinds Inc. – 311%
  • Troux Technology Inc. – 264%
  • Quick Arrow Inc. – 248%
  • QuantimDigital Inc. 187%

 

Austin “Inc. 500” list:

  • Genesis Today
  • On Tme Electric & Air
  • BabyEarth
  • Zebra Imaging
  • C&Z Enterprises
  • Adlucent
  • C.L. Carson
  • Austin GeoModeling
  • Apogee Search
  • Intelligent Logistics
  • ProfitFuel
  • Ascendant Technology

 

 

Some of Austin’s notable Inc. 5,000 companies are: Sweet Leaf Tea, Convio, Netspend Corp. and CreditCards.com.

 

 

(5-year percentage growth rate included after the dash)

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

January 30, 2009 at 12:50 am Leave a comment

Good News for Texas, Again

Tx StarThe largest private mortgage insurance providers in the country, PMI Group, has a report out on economic real estate trends in the major metro areas specifically assessing the risk factor of what metro areas are at risk of declining value.  The Risk Index uses economic, housing, and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates, and foreclosure activity) to determine these probabilities.

 

 The results:   TEXAS HOME PRICES AT LEAST RISK

 

WALNUT CREEK, CA (PMI Group) – Amidst a nation of MSAs hosting tumbling home prices, the Lone Star State’s own metropolitan areas have held tight to their home values, with only five of 26 MSAs seeing price declines in a 12-month period ending in September.

 

According to PMI Group’s Winter 2009 Risk Index, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio were the least likely large MSAs in the country during third quarter 2008 to experience lower home prices in the next two years. Each had a risk index of less than one.

 

Austin ranked as the 12th least likely metropolitan area to experience home price depreciation, with a 3.1 risk index, up from 2.3 in second quarter 2008.

 

Overall, Texas MSAs averaged a 2.8 percent increase in home prices between September 2007 and the same month in 2008.

 

Four of Texas’ MSAs claimed spots in PMI Group’s list of top ten annual house price appreciation rates. Sherman-Denison had an appreciation rate of 8.56; Victoria, 8.34; Odessa, 7.98; and College Station–Bryan, 6.71.

 

PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index uses economic, housing and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates and foreclosure activity) to determine the probability of lower home prices in the future.

 

For the full study,

http://www.pmi-us.com/media/pdf/products_services/eret/pmi_eret09v1.pdf

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

January 23, 2009 at 10:47 pm Leave a comment

Attention New Home Buyers

Attention New Home Buyers: 

 

For a long time, builders have offered appealing financing incentives for you to use their lender such as covering title policy or $1k-$2k towards closing costs. There is a new RESPA rule that says they can no longer limit that to only their lender and they have to pay the same incentives to the buyer no matter where they get their financing. How nice.  Now you have more financing options when building a new home.  Call us to discuss and see the article below.

 

Developers Beware: New RESPA Limitations on Homebuilder Incentives will Require Changes to Procedures and Contracts

Prepared by the law offices of Greenberg Traurig, December 2008

 

For many years, it has been common for homebuilders and developers of condos and other residential real property to offer incentives to buyers to induce them to use preferred or affiliated title agencies and affiliated mortgage companies. Sometimes, these incentives were substantial, exceeding $10,000 or more. However, developers that offer those incentives after January 16, 2009 will violate the federal Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (12 U.S.C. §§ 2601 et seq.), commonly known as RESPA. These RESPA violations can result in civil penalties as well as criminal prosecution.

 

On November 17, 2008 the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (“HUD”) published substantial amendments to its Regulation X (24 CFR Part 3500) implementing RESPA. 73 Fed. Reg. 68203 (November 17, 2008). The final rule including these amendments is available online at forms of the Good Faith Estimate and the HUD-1/HUD-1A settlement statements that become effective January 1, 2010. As a result, the changes to the required use provisions affecting homebuilder incentives have not received much public attention.hsg/sfh/res/finalrule.pdf. Most of the amended rule applies to changes in the http://www.hud.gov/offices/

 

Required Use Changes

The changes to the definition of “required use” in the new rule will effectively eliminate the ability of homebuilders to provide incentives to buyers for using a preferred or affiliated title agency, affiliated mortgage company or other affiliated settlement service provider. The changes also prohibit the use of disincentives if a buyer does not use a preferred or affiliated settlement service provider. These changes to the required use rules take effect sooner than the other RESPA rule changes, specifically on January 16, 2009. This impending deadline will require developers to quickly change their contracts and procedures to avoid violations of the new rule. The “required use” prohibition is found in two distinct provisions of RESPA:

 

Section 8: RESPA includes prohibitions against kickbacks, referral fees and unearned fees in Section 8. One of the important exceptions to this rule applies to “affiliated business arrangements.” Among the requirements of this exception is that the use of an affiliated settlement service provider, such as a mortgage lender, is not required. An “affiliated entity” under RESPA is very broadly defined and includes any entity that has more than a

1% direct or beneficial ownership interest in the other entity or is under common ownership or control. Violations of Section 8 are subject to a civil penalty equal to three times to cost of the settlement service. Section 8 violations can also give rise to criminal sanctions of up to $10,000 and/or imprisonment for not more than a year.

 

Section 9: RESPA prohibits a seller of real property financed with a RESPA covered loan from directly or indirectly requiring the buyer to purchase title insurance from a particular title company. This prohibition applies to any title company or title agency, whether or not affiliated with the seller. Section 9 violations are subject to a civil penalty equal to three times all charges for title insurance. In the final rule, HUD modified the definition of “required use” so that incentives may still be offered, but only by “settlement service providers.” Since HUD takes the position that homebuilders do not qualify as settlement

service providers, this means the new rule prohibits homebuilders from offering incentives to buyers to use their affiliated companies. Senior RESPA officials at HUD have informally confirmed that this is an intended result. They have expressly stated that HUD wants incentives for using affiliated settlement service providers eliminated from homebuilders’ purchase contracts in order to promote comparison shopping by buyers.

 

Action Must be Taken Now!

With the January 16, 2009 deadline fast approaching, homebuilders, developers and other sellers of residential real property must take action now, including:

 

• Review of contacts. Homebuilders’ contracts must be rewritten, if necessary, to eliminate any buyer incentives for use of affiliated mortgage companies or other affiliated settlement service providers. They must also eliminate any incentives for the use of preferred title agencies, whether or not the title agency is an affiliate.

 

INCENTIVE PROVISIONS CANNOT BE USED IN ANY CONTRACT ENTERED INTO ON OR AFTER

JANUARY 16, 2009.

• Sales training and procedures must be implemented quickly. Sellers must ensure that buyers are not led to believe it will be more costly for them if they don’t use an affiliated or preferred title company or affiliated mortgage company.

• Advertising that will appear after January 16, 2009 must be reviewed and altered to eliminate references to these impermissible incentives.

 

Some Incentives Have Survived

The revised RESPA rules do not outlaw all incentives by homebuilders. Developers and homebuilders can still:

• Offer incentives to buyers as an inducement to buy homes or condos.

• Provide incentives for buyers to use non-affiliated mortgage companies and other settlement service providers other than title companies and title agencies.  

 
CAUTION: If there is a marketing agreement or similar arrangement in place with a mortgage company, then the offering of incentives may violate RESPA’s Section 8 anti-kickback rules.

• Offer incentives to use affiliated mortgage companies and title agencies on non-RESPA transactions. These include sales to investors and cash purchasers.

• Provide incentives to buyers that sign their contract prior to January 16, 2009, even if the sale closes after that date.

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

January 14, 2009 at 6:33 pm Leave a comment

The Economy is Still Better in TX

This in today from The Real Estate Center, part of the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University in College Station

COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – More than two million U.S. jobs were lost from November 2007 to November 2008, representing 1.5 percent of its labor force. The Texas economy fared much better during the period, gaining 222,900 jobs and increasing its labor force by 2.1 percent.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.2 percent in November 2007 to 5.7 percent in November 2008. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent to 6.7 percent over the same period.

Despite recent oil price decreases, the state’s mining industry continues to gain jobs. It ranked first in job creation, followed by professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, and construction.

All Texas metros experienced positive employment growth rates from November 2007 to November 2008. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission ranked first in job creation followed by Laredo, College Station–Bryan, Longview and El Paso.

The state’s actual unemployment rate in November 2008 was 5.6 percent. Petroplexes Midland and Odessa ranked first and second in lowest unemployment rate followed by Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene and College Station–Bryan.

The complete economic report is available on the Real Estate Center’s website.

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

January 13, 2009 at 8:04 pm Leave a comment

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