Posts filed under ‘Data Central’
Austin, TX Economic Outlook: No Longer a Secret
Austin as we know it today
Last month I had the honor of listening to David Tandy, CEO of Gracy Title, talk about the Austin economy, the Austin real estate market outlook and where we’re going. Hold on … the Austin we know today will not be the Austin of 2023. Some of the numbers I will reference in this post include articles, posts & research from the Austin Business Journal, 2013-2014 Angelos Angelou Economic Forecast, and the Austin Chamber.
F1
My biggest takeaway was that the Austin growth, momentum, economic outlook numbers are quite possibly understated. The main premise here is that most of the economic forecast, growth projection numbers were researched and posted PRIOR to the F1 Circuit of Americas airing in November (which had an estimated $483M economic impact to Austin) where 600 million people worldwide heard about Austin, TX and what an amazing city we are. Austin is no longer a secret.
The Numbers
- At a 2.9% growth rate, we are the fastest growing city in the US.
- In 2013, there will be 60-70,000 people moving to Austin. This growth will continue.
- For every 2.5 people, we need one housing unit (home or apartment) which equals a 28,000 demand this year. This demand will continue.
- In 2012, we created about 12,000 housing units, demand was 28,000; we currently have a 30,000 housing deficit. This deficit will continue.
- low supply, high demand = sellers’ market
California
Californians are moving to Texas, a lot of them. Recent headlines involve Governor Perry’s poaching tour of CA (real classy move, Gov). California’s tall state income tax, increasing sales taxes and suffering schools are fueling the 3rd coast migration. Besides #sxsw, watch for more CA license plates in TX.
Real estate tips for our new residents
First, welcome (ignore the don’t-move-here t-shirts). Second, we are still much cheaper than CA. And a few other things you should know:
- no income tax in TX, we make up for it in property taxes (they will be much higher than you experienced in CA)
- prices are going up
- Multiple offers are commonplace right now and expected to continue
- Find out about homes before they hit the market (we call this the silent market or pocket listings or, simply, coming soon). How to do this? A good Realtor has a solid network of Realtors and they exchange information all the time. You may want to consider aligning yourself with an office that has the largest market share in the area. (Shameless plug: Keller Williams Realty began in Austin, TX in 1983 … they dominate the Austin market, most listings, most sold, most luxury market, most agents.)
Summary
The growth in Austin over the next 3-10 years is going to be huge, dare I say explosive. Jobs are fine … best job growth in the country. We will continue to feel it with housing supply, multiple offers, increasing prices, affordability and traffic.
Buyers have to be very strategic and on-the-ball with making an offer. The demand & low supply is pushing prices up. There is a ton of CASH out there right now. Gracy Title says 30% of their closings right now are all cash. This translates to disadvantage for contingent and low down-payment offers.
Connect with your favorite savvy and qualified Realtor to customize your real estate strategy and successfully navigate Austin as we know it today.
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty, 2013-2015. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content. Julie Nelson is a licensed Realtor with Keller Williams Realty in Austin, TX. This article and other blog postings should not be construed as legal or professional advice. Contact your favorite Austin real estate professionals in person for actual advice. Julie can be reached at www.thenelsonproject.com. Searching for homes? We think this is the coolest Austin home search tool available.
Market Review & Housing Affordability
Wanted to give you some links that provide good information on the Austin real estate market, 2010 summary and what we’re seeing right now early into 2011. These are some of the main data resources we use in tracking the market.
One thing that we watch with interest is what we call the Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the HAI is the ability of the average family to afford the average home with only 20% down. It measures whether a typical family could qualify for a typical mortgage on a typical house. The index is up, meaning affordability is up mainly because of 2 of these 3 factors … pretty sure the typical family income is not up so it’s the seriously low mortgage rates and the downward effect of home prices creating the increased HAI. From 1990 – 2008, the index was around 115-140; it’s over 180 right now. When interest rates go up, the index will creep back down.
One of the best sources for Texas and Austin real estate stats is the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. Here is a link to the Austin data page: http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/hs/hs140.asp.
The Austin Board of Realtors has an excellent report out, Implications & Expectations for Austin’s Market, that outlines the overall 2010 market results.
One of the main things we’re seeing in Austin is price softening but volume of sales creeping up. These are averages for Austin and your local neighborhood market may have different trends with many neighborhoods holding steady. Buyers will pick up this spring but so will the number of homes on the market.
Again, we’re always saying real estate is local and we are happy to run stats & strategy specific to your neighborhood.
The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty in Austin strives to provide valuable real estate information and news through this blog and our other online resources. Find more about The Nelson Project and search for Austin homes at www.TheNelsonProject.com. If you like this blog, you may want to visit our totally useful Austin neighborhood portal. We think you may also like www.tacomap.info (tacos first, real estate second). If you really like what you see, tell your friends to call us with their Austin real estate needs.
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty, 2009-2011. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Quick Study Austin Market
I just ran 15 quickie pending / sold analysis around Austin comparing sold the last 60 days and current pending and found some interesting and optimistic data.
If you say that 30 homes sold in area 4 in the past 60 days, that tells us that 15 homes are selling per month recently. Then you see that there are currently 20 area 4 homes pending … that means, in theory, that 20 homes will close in the next 30 days. That would be a slight increase in activity.
When we see the pace pick up like this, it indicates that we are moving inventory through the system, lowering the number of homes on the market. This is a good thing. If the market is saturated, it softens prices; when the market has fewer homes available, it increases demand … basic economics and something we watch closely.
Of the 15 snapshots I ran, 14 were up, 1 was even. Meaning, they all are showing that homes sold for the next 30 days will outpace the rate at which they sold the past 60 days.
5 of them have almost doubled: areas 1B, 1A, downtown condos, 78704 condos and area 5 (east).
The next healthiest: Anderson High School, 78704 homes, area 10N.
A little further down the list but showing stability: areas 4, 2, Hays and Pflugerville over $200k.
This is not an indication of prices creeping up (that is another study), but it indicates stability.
Crestview Allandale Violet Crown: What’s up with that market?
Today’s neighborhood analysis is Crestview in north central Austin. I constantly study Crestview and today’s focus is because I am working with owners about to put their home on the market. So what’s going on in that popular neighborhood?
First, Crestview, as the public perceives it, roughly runs from Burnet to Lamar and Anderson to Koenig and involves 8 or so actual subdivisions, most of which you have most likely not heard of including Vallejo, Violet Crown, Burnet Heights, Northridge Terrace, Bellair Heights. When analyzing the Crestview area, I generally will dip south of 2222 into a slice of Allandale as well as near McCallum Highschool in the Sunshine & Roosevelt streets as a buyer looking in Crestview will most likely also be looking in those neighboring neighborhoods.
It is a very popular north central location due to it’s proximity to downtown and UT without the DT / UT / Hyde Park / Rosedale prices. It has become a trendy destination for young professionals and contemporary remodels. It is gentrification meets octogenarian original owners meets the I-am-not-moving-to-the-suburbs crowd. Built in the late 40’s to the early 60’s, Crestview is grandma meets mid-century modern meets organic gardener. You should see some of the vintage bathroom tile.
So, the market. Crestview really went up in value in the 2000’s and has flattened out the last few years. We are waiting to see if 2010 will dip in average price but right now it’s holding. However, right now there is a higher inventory than we have seen in the neighborhood for a long time and that will, most likely, increase time on market and bring prices down a bit. In the chart below, you’ll see that the median sold price increased 9% from 2006 to present.
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | % Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Sold | 231 | 170 | 114 | 144 | 64 | |
| Avg Sold | $234,830 | $269,193 | $270,396 | $265,115 | $267,467 | 14% |
| Med Sold | $227,250 | $262,150 | $259,000 | $256,162 | $248,450 | 9% |
| Avg $ SQFT | $189 | $213 | $218 | $204 | $198 | 5% |
| Med $ SQFT | $190 | $213 | $220 | $210 | $203 | 7% |
| Med Days on Mkt | 17 | 15 | 29 | 42 | 28 | 65% |
This chart is all sold data but the active / for-sale data is very important as we assess the market. For example, right now there are 25 homes on the market in the area in the $200k – $250k price range and only two pending. 18 sold in the last 90 days but we are still seeing the first-time tax credit buyers move through the system. July and August should be very telling but that is another article.
The good news: interest rates (omg) and buyers should be paying attention cause it’s a virtual candy store out there. The not so good news, for sellers, is that inventory needs to go down before prices will come up. The best news: we live in Austin, TX and people are moving here and will continue to move here. I am personally cheering for the game developers and Google and Facebook as they grow their businesses in our fine city … I think they’ll fit in quite nicely in Crestview.
The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty in Austin strives to bring you valuable real estate information and news through this blog and our other online resources. Find more about The Nelson Project and search for Austin homes at www.TheNelsonProject.com. if you like this blog, you may want to visit our totally useful Austin neighborhood portal. If you really like what you see, tell your friends to call us with all their Austin real estate needs.
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Technorati Tags: crestview,allandale,moving to austin,where should i live in austin,austin neighborhood stats,north central austin
2009 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit
The above chart includes the major modifications to the home-buyer tax credit effective 2009. There are more details and requirements for the credit that are not listed but can be found at http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=187935,00.html or
http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/faq.php
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
This Month In Real Estate (US): February 2009
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Facts, Figures, Rankings, and Statistics about Austin, TX:Survive and Thrive
14 Austin companies made “Tech Fast 50” list, Deloitte & Touche LLP (October, 2008 )
The list, which the consulting firm compiles each year, ranks companies based on 5-year revenue growth. Austin, with a population of 1.6 million, has a higher concentration of these companies than any other metropolitan area in Texas.
12 Austin companies made the list “Inc. 500” list, Inc. magazine (August, 2008 )
The compilation features the country’s fastest-growing privately held companies, which was based on revenue growth from 2004 to 2007.
Austin’s “Tech Fast 50” list:
- Zebra Imaging – 8,515%
- Anue Systems – 2,261%
- Zilliant Inc. – 1,497%
- Surgient Inc. – 1,138%
- Convio Inc. – 707%
- NetQos – 671%
- Perficient Inc. – 623%
- Valence Technology Inc. – 552%
- Medical Present Value Inc. – 440%
- SolarWinds Inc. – 311%
- Troux Technology Inc. – 264%
- Quick Arrow Inc. – 248%
- QuantimDigital Inc. 187%
Austin “Inc. 500” list:
- Genesis Today
- On Tme Electric & Air
- BabyEarth
- Zebra Imaging
- C&Z Enterprises
- Adlucent
- C.L. Carson
- Austin GeoModeling
- Apogee Search
- Intelligent Logistics
- ProfitFuel
- Ascendant Technology
Some of Austin’s notable Inc. 5,000 companies are: Sweet Leaf Tea, Convio, Netspend Corp. and CreditCards.com.
(5-year percentage growth rate included after the dash)
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
Good News for Texas, Again
The largest private mortgage insurance providers in the country, PMI Group, has a report out on economic real estate trends in the major metro areas specifically assessing the risk factor of what metro areas are at risk of declining value. The Risk Index uses economic, housing, and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates, and foreclosure activity) to determine these probabilities.
The results: TEXAS HOME PRICES AT LEAST RISK
WALNUT CREEK, CA (PMI Group) – Amidst a nation of MSAs hosting tumbling home prices, the Lone Star State’s own metropolitan areas have held tight to their home values, with only five of 26 MSAs seeing price declines in a 12-month period ending in September.
According to PMI Group’s Winter 2009 Risk Index, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio were the least likely large MSAs in the country during third quarter 2008 to experience lower home prices in the next two years. Each had a risk index of less than one.
Austin ranked as the 12th least likely metropolitan area to experience home price depreciation, with a 3.1 risk index, up from 2.3 in second quarter 2008.
Overall, Texas MSAs averaged a 2.8 percent increase in home prices between September 2007 and the same month in 2008.
Four of Texas’ MSAs claimed spots in PMI Group’s list of top ten annual house price appreciation rates. Sherman-Denison had an appreciation rate of 8.56; Victoria, 8.34; Odessa, 7.98; and College Station–Bryan, 6.71.
PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index uses economic, housing and mortgage market factors (including home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates and foreclosure activity) to determine the probability of lower home prices in the future.
For the full study,
http://www.pmi-us.com/media/pdf/products_services/eret/pmi_eret09v1.pdf
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
The Economy is Still Better in TX
This in today from The Real Estate Center, part of the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University in College Station
COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – More than two million U.S. jobs were lost from November 2007 to November 2008, representing 1.5 percent of its labor force. The Texas economy fared much better during the period, gaining 222,900 jobs and increasing its labor force by 2.1 percent.
The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.2 percent in November 2007 to 5.7 percent in November 2008. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent to 6.7 percent over the same period.
Despite recent oil price decreases, the state’s mining industry continues to gain jobs. It ranked first in job creation, followed by professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, and construction.
All Texas metros experienced positive employment growth rates from November 2007 to November 2008. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission ranked first in job creation followed by Laredo, College Station–Bryan, Longview and El Paso.
The state’s actual unemployment rate in November 2008 was 5.6 percent. Petroplexes Midland and Odessa ranked first and second in lowest unemployment rate followed by Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene and College Station–Bryan.
The complete economic report is available on the Real Estate Center’s website.
© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.
