Posts filed under ‘In the News’

Real estate expectations for the next decade

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/business/economy/23decline.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=housing%20investment&st=cse no direction Small

A friend sent me this NY Times article link and asked for my commentary as it relates to the Austin real estate market. Love to.

An interesting article, for sure. There is so much caution in the market right now and Austin is not immune. Austin has been somewhat immune and definitely lucky with much more economic stability for the past 4 years than the country as a whole and that continues today (how many articles a month do we see that say Austin #1 at something, top-10 something, best business environment, best economy, best for 30-somethings, best tacos, best best best, top this, top that etc).

I filter everything I read on the economy and housing market with 2 filters … the FL/AZ/Vegas filter and the Austin filter. So much of the housing crisis and the economic quagmire is because FL and AZ and Vegas et al were out of control and consumers were ignoring what they learned in Econ 101 (moderate growth is healthy, aggressive gain can only sustain for so long) and wanted in on the opportunity and, of course, the lenders loaning to anyone with a pulse but that is a separate commentary.

I still think you can put a kid through college with buying real estate in Austin; I have no idea what that looks like in FL. An example would be buying a $130k home in Austin right now that can break even per month with an $1100 rent … keep that for 15 years (pay it down aggressively) and sell it for $180k? That is actually about a 3% appreciation if you calculate on the full value of the home but when you calculate on the down payment (which really was your investment), your appreciation is closer to 7%. (Basic real estate math: calculate on your cash-in & return on that investment, not on the market value of the asset.)

The article mentions the Shiller & Case annual survey and it says folks in Boston, SF, Orange Cty & Milwaukee think the market will go up about 10% a year this next decade. Are they on crack? Austin, a very healthy market, appreciated on average about 4-5% per year during the boom; this was an exceptionally healthy and stable appreciation. Come on folks, wake up. Perhaps the article needs to address the psychology of folks in Milwaukee having grand expectations.

 

The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty in Austin strives to bring you valuable real estate information and news through this blog and our other online resources.  Find more about The Nelson Project and search for Austin homes at www.TheNelsonProject.com.  if you like this blog, you may want to visit our totally useful Austin neighborhood portal.  If you really like what you see, tell your friends to call us with all their Austin real estate needs.

 

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

del.icio.us Tags: ,,,

August 24, 2010 at 8:12 am Leave a comment

1 in 730 in TX; 1 in 69 in NV

Thanks to our friends at Austin Title Midtown …

An excerpt of the Texas Economic Update released by SigmaBleyzer, an economics forecasting and private equity firm out of Houston:

"Historically low rates and more affordable house prices should support housing markets as the first time homebuyer tax credit expires.  Still, local markets that were hardest hit by the housing bust may face prolonged recovery as more fail to service their debt.  In fact, in the first quarter of 2010, over 10% of all loans were late (up from 9.5% at the end of 2009).  Yet, according to Realty Trac, only one in 730 housing units in Texas was in foreclosure in April (compared to one in 69 in Nevada, one in 181 in Florida, and one in 192 in California)."

The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty in Austin strives to bring you valuable real estate information and news through this blog and our other online resources.  Find more about The Nelson Project and search for Austin homes at www.TheNelsonProject.com.

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

Technorati Tags: ,,,

June 1, 2010 at 11:10 am Leave a comment

The Economy is Still Better in TX

This in today from The Real Estate Center, part of the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University in College Station

COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – More than two million U.S. jobs were lost from November 2007 to November 2008, representing 1.5 percent of its labor force. The Texas economy fared much better during the period, gaining 222,900 jobs and increasing its labor force by 2.1 percent.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.2 percent in November 2007 to 5.7 percent in November 2008. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent to 6.7 percent over the same period.

Despite recent oil price decreases, the state’s mining industry continues to gain jobs. It ranked first in job creation, followed by professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, and construction.

All Texas metros experienced positive employment growth rates from November 2007 to November 2008. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission ranked first in job creation followed by Laredo, College Station–Bryan, Longview and El Paso.

The state’s actual unemployment rate in November 2008 was 5.6 percent. Petroplexes Midland and Odessa ranked first and second in lowest unemployment rate followed by Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene and College Station–Bryan.

The complete economic report is available on the Real Estate Center’s website.

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

January 13, 2009 at 8:04 pm Leave a comment

Good News for Austin

Austin SkylineTop 10 Most Promising Housing Markets

Housing Predictor, which provides housing forecasts in 250 markets, has identified 10 markets where the regional economies are healthy and have strong potential for increasing prosperity.

These housing markets have bucked the national trend in 2008 and avoided the subprime crisis, the consultancy says.

Whatever the future holds for the housing market as a whole, Housing Predictor forecasts that these cities will continue to see steady, dependable growth.

Top cities and the percentage sales prices have increased so far in 2008.

  • Biloxi, Miss., 4.9 percent
  • Salem, Ore., 4.7 percent
  • Bismarck, N.D., 4.6 percent
  • Spokane, Wash., 4.4 percent
  • Yakima, Wash., 4.1 percent
  • Austin, Texas, 4.0 percent
  • Grand Junction, Colo., 4.0 percent
  • Fargo, N.D., 4.0 percent
  • Mobile, Ala., 3.9 percent
  • Albuquerque, N.M., 3.5 percent

Source: Housing Predictor (11/15/08)

 

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

November 20, 2008 at 7:59 pm 1 comment

You can still get a mortgage

Yes, you can.  Do you have a job and a decent credit score?  There’s money out there.  The more you fit into the lenders specifically-defined boxes, the easier it is.  There are fewer boxes.  And tighter boxes, but there is money out there; plenty of it.  If you are outside of the box (self-employed, own multiple properties, own multiple businesses, downpayment coming from another source etc), then there are more hoops or you may be best suited for a local bank.  There is money out there.

This article today from the Chicago Tribune is a very good summary:  You can still get a mortgage

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

October 17, 2008 at 2:49 pm 1 comment

Biggest Article of the Week: Watch Where the Artists Live

KAngermann)
Bling (photography: KAngermann)

BusinessWeek

 

Real Estate News September 23, 2008

Great article from BusinessWeek … Up-and-Coming Neighborhoods: Great Buying Opportunities

Want to know where the next hot real estate markets will be? Watch where the artists are living now.

Similar trends are occurring in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Miami, and Austin, Tex. BusinessWeek.com selected 15 urban neighborhoods that artists have discovered and where homeowners could see returns in coming decades.

 

The article: 

http://www.businessweek.com/print/lifestyle/content/sep2008/bw20080923_944330.htm

 

The list:

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/09/0924_artsy_neighborhoods/index.htm

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

October 16, 2008 at 3:58 pm Leave a comment

A surprising safe haven for savings

An emerging story beneath the headlines  

September 29, 2008  

By Dave Jenks, Vice President of Research and Development and Jay Papasan, Vice President of Publishing and Executive Editor, Keller Williams Realty  

 

Amidst fears of a financial market freefall, the real estate market is emerging as a bright spot. Indicators are pointing to an end to the bust; in fact, real estate may be poised for a bounce.  

 

While consumers are scrambling to diversify their saving and investment accounts and retreating from paper assets (e.g. stocks) into hard assets (e.g. gold), the savviest among them are looking deeper than morning’s headlines and realizing that real estate is a solid investment option in the current market.  

 

Home prices have corrected and fallen back into alignment with historic trends. The inventory of homes for sale is finally shrinking from the June 2008 peak. Also, based on year-over-year comparisons, housing affordability is now higher than it’s been for the past five years. All signs point to the real estate market turning the corner. So for investors seeking a safe haven in this financial storm, housing emerges as a surprisingly good choice—an undervalued hard asset with upside potential.  

 

As the following chart illustrates, the unsustainably high run-up in home prices between 2001 and 2005 is coming back in to alignment with the historic 4 percent trajectory in home price appreciation. Indeed the market has corrected. While it is quite possible that the market will continue for a time to ―over correct, the important point to realize is that no one can ever predict or time the floor—until after the fact when opportunity has been lost.  

 

Is Housing Headed for a Turnaround? Home prices falling back into alignment with historical trends  

 

Source: Keller Williams Realty, Inc.  

The long-term affordability trend of 4 percent appreciation has been recovered after a five-year period of unsustainable growth (2001 to 2005) followed by a three-year market correction (2006 to 2008.) 

 
Now is the time to buy and the reasons are many: 
  • Real estate remains one of the most stable long-term investments with relatively modest fluctuations in annual gains. 
  • The extensive housing inventory in most markets is providing great choices for investors. 
  • Mortgage money is available to financially stable buyers and interest rates remain attractively low. 
  • Real estate investments tend to bring a greater annual return on investment (ROI) than stocks, gold or commodities, because they are leveraged (buyers put 20 percent down, and receive appreciation on the entire value of the property). 
  • Just as the late 1980’s and early 1990’s provided a massive opportunity for real estate investors to make great buys and build wealth, the current market will do the same. Smart money is already back in the market buying up the distressed properties. 
  • There is a simple formula for investing in real estate – Criteria, Terms and Network. That formula and the step-by-step process for using it are clearly described in the best-selling book, The Millionaire Real Estate Investor

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

September 30, 2008 at 9:57 pm Leave a comment

Bail out

Just wanted to get this out quick because it’s the best summary I’ve seen this week …

COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) 09.26.08 – As negotiations continue over the proposed $700 billion bailout of the nation’s financial system, Dr. Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, offers his perspective:

“It’s a sad day in America when the federal government (the American taxpayer) has to bail out homeowners who purchased homes they couldn’t possibly afford. It’s sad because of the vast majority of Americans who live within their means and pay their mortgages on time are now being asked to pay for other people’s mistakes.

“It’s a sad day in America when we have to spend billions to bail out financial institutions that made loans to those people, then sold those loans to pension funds and endowment associations that had no idea of the risk they were taking when they bought the ‘complex and sophisticated’ bonds. ‘Complex and sophisticated’ is just a euphemism for ‘I have no earthly idea what I’m buying.’

“Now for the pragmatism. If we don’t bail out the banks, the American economy grinds to a halt. Many U.S. businesses are financed with short-term notes that mature in 90 to 180 days. This is called commercial paper. What happens when your 90-day note matures, and nobody will refinance it? Just ask Fannie and Freddie, who had $225 billion in short-term notes mature and nobody would refinance them. Hasta la vista. The commercial paper market is virtually frozen, and many businesses are in the same boat as Frannie was.

“The smartest people working in the global financial system say that this $700 billion is a good first step, that it might help to thaw the frozen credit markets but that the devil is in the details. Some say it might take another $500 billion later.

“The fact is that there is a market for these bad loans. It’s about 22 cents on the dollar. The problem is that nobody wants to sell for that price as long as the taxpayers will pay a higher price. So the federal government will buy these assets for a higher price, and it’s possible that they can sell them later and make a profit. It’s possible that the net cost to the taxpayer will be very little. The bottom line is that we are in uncharted waters, and this $700 billion plan is the best plan that seems to have some hope of temporarily solving the problem.

“The long-term problem is still on the table, and that is the simple fact that the U.S. government can’t keep spending more money than it has. Even governments can go bankrupt. The long-term solution for the U.S. government and every American household is to live within their means.

“Who is going to want to invest in mortgage bonds in the future if the federal government can freeze the interest rates below what was promised? Who is going to want to invest in mortgage bonds if the government can cram down the principal on the bonds you bought? Until the federal government can restore some confidence in the global investment community that if you buy a mortgage bond you have a reasonable certainty of getting your principal and the promised interest, the problems will linger.

“The bailout is inevitable and has to happen. Expect more to come. These are just bandages on a gaping wound. Hopefully lessons will be learned, and we will begin to address the illness and not just put on more bandages.”

September 26, 2008 at 8:03 pm 1 comment

Bottoms Up? NYTimes 8.26.08

Falling prices bring out home purchasers in July

Some analysts say market has hit bottom, but supply very high relative to sales.

By Michael M. Grynbaum

NEW YORK TIMES

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

 

Home sales perked up in July, a respite for the housing market, as falling prices appeared to lure more buyers. But the number of homes for sale increased as well, which could push prices down further.

 

Sales of previously owned homes, which make up most of the nation’s housing supply, rose 3.1 percent last month from the month before, making July the best month for sales since February 2007. Economists had expected an increase of 1.2 percent. Sales are running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units, the National Association of Realtors, said Monday. That is the fastest pace in five months.

 

“Hard to avoid the conclusion that sales have bottomed out,” Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics wrote in a note.

 

A wave of foreclosures and tighter lending standards had scared off many would-be purchasers from the market, which has entered its worst slump since the Great Depression.

 

But another factor hindering sales has been a prevailing sense among Americans that prices could drop further. Monday’s report added more evidence that could be the case.

 

The National Association of Realtors figures include all types of housing. The biggest improvement for the month came in single-family homes, with a 3.1 percent gain and a decrease in homes on the market. The overall supply rose 3.9 percent, led by a significant jump in apartments for sale.

 

“Inventories are very high relative to sales rates, and would probably be even more so if all those wishing to sell their home actually had the house on the market instead of pulling it off in the face of weak demand and eroding prices,” Joshua Shapiro, chief domestic economist at the research firm MFR, wrote in a note.

 

“There is still a considerable distance to travel before prices sink to levels necessary to balance supply and demand in the housing market,” he wrote.

 

The median price for a previously owned home fell in July to $212,400 from $215,100 in June. Last month’s price was 7.1 percent below the level in July 2007.

 

Central Texas home prices have not declined. The median single family home price last month rose 3 percent, to $195,000; sales were down 21 percent from a year ago.

 

In Western states, sales were higher than they were a year ago, the only region in the country to see an annual increase. Sales in the West rose 9.7 percent in July; they were up 5.9 percent in the Northeast, rose 0.9 percent in the Midwest and declined 0.5 percent in the South.

 

At the current sales rate, it would take 11.2 months to work off the entire supply of homes on the market.

 

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

August 26, 2008 at 7:40 pm 1 comment

Bright spots in the housing nightmare

David Koeppel of MSN Money interviews James Gaines, a research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University on the topic of why Texas as had “remarkable resilience” in the 2008 market woes.  Koppel says that nobody has been unscathed, but TX is a bright spot.  Lucky us.   

 

Here’s the link: 

BrightSpot

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2008-2010. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

August 7, 2008 at 8:13 pm Leave a comment

Older Posts


Email Us

Call US
512-848-5881

Categories

© Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Reatly, 2016-2020. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Julie Nelson and The Nelson Project at Keller Williams Realty with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

%d bloggers like this: